Good spaces were hard to find in the vast Fry's Electronics parking lot on a recent Friday afternoon. Inside, groups of shoppers slowed traffic in most of the aisles. Over by the cash registers, more than a dozen customers lined up to pay for printers, PCs and DVD players.

It's a scene playing out at electronics retailers in much of the nation - business as usual.

While restaurants, auto dealers and furniture stores are taking a hit from the rising price of gas and falling economy, consumer electronics sales remain healthy.

So far.

Experts debate whether it will hold up, but technology is showing signs of being resistant to recession:

Nintendo Wii game consoles continue to sell as quickly as the company makes them, while Microsoft and Sony report strong sales of their respective video game systems, the Xbox 360 and the PlayStation 3.

Corning, maker of the glass for flat-panel LCD TVs, is projecting a rosy near-term outlook based on anticipated growth in digital TV sales.

Retailer Best Buy recently reported 3.7 percent annual sales growth for its existing stores.

Wal-Mart has expanded its displays of high-definition TVs, computers, video games and personal navigation devices.

At Fry's, San Diego teacher Mark Chandonnet didn't let the economic doldrums keep him from buying a few things. Chandonnet, who's taking a pay cut this year, picked out an external hard drive and a few DVD movies and headed for the checkout line.

The economic pinch has prompted him to cancel vacation plans. He and his wife have cut back on dinners out and postponed replacing a dysfunctional dishwasher. So far, the electronics budget remains funded.

"It hasn't stopped me from shopping here yet," Chandonnet said.

The tech world is watching to see how long the electronics-loving Chandonnets of the world will see gadgets such as external hard drives as essential purchases.

It's a big question.

Surveys of tech consumers' intentions are all over the place. One says spending on gadgets is going up. Another says the home-tech budget is about to get the ax. A third says consumers are on the fence.

The skeptics have signs they can point to, as well:

Digital TV sales growth has slowed to a single percentage point over last year, according to the NPD Group, which tracks consumer spending.

Sales of Blu-ray high-definition movie players remain sluggish despite the demise of competing format HD-DVD.

Many customers appear to be bypassing large digital TVs, instead buying models with 32-inch or smaller screens.

The Consumer Electronics Association, which in January forecast a $10 billion rise in tech spending to $172 billion for 2008, remains at the optimistic end of the spectrum.

"Consumers continue to value technology and increasingly integrate it into their lives," said CEA economist Shawn DuBravac.

Research by the electronics industry trade association found that a significant number of Americans plan to spend their economic stimulus rebates on electronics, such as flat-panel TVs. The group also found that consumers in general say they will spend more on gadgets this year than last.

"Maybe people aren't traveling as much as they had, but there are some things that are essential," DuBravac said. "They're saying they'll spend their checks to pay debt and bills and buy things like food and gas.

"Technology was relatively high on the list."

The CEA found that one out of every five survey respondents will spend at least a portion of his or her stimulus check on consumer electronics, for a total of $5 billion.

Computers, TVs and cell phones will top the list of consumer electronics purchased with stimulus checks, according to the CEA. DuBravac said sales of Global Positioning System navigation systems are up 135 percent this year, and video game hardware sales are up 20 percent.

Although the CEA expects electronics sales to continue doing well, other experts suspect that consumers are poised to cut back on gadget purchases. Online investment research site Changewave found that 36 percent of consumers surveyed in May expected to spend less on electronics in the coming months, while 18 percent said they would spend more.

At Dallas-based market research firm Parks Associates, which has its own forecast of consumer electronics sales, principal analyst Kurt Scherf isn't surprised by the conflicting survey results.

Economic indicators change direction daily, leading to big stock market swings. It makes sense that consumer opinions would sway, too, Scherf said.

"Consumers are not buying stuff in a vacuum," he said. "Their concerns and intentions tend to be reflective of the news going out on the economy."

Scherf's survey suggests that a different group of electronics will hold up well in the slow economy. While the CEA expects HDTVs, video game consoles and GPS devices to do well, Scherf sees those products as vulnerable to consumer cutbacks.

He sees MP3 players, home theaters and digital cameras as recession-resistant. Both Scherf and the CEA expect desktop computer and laptop sales to remain strong.

Scherf said many consumers upgrade items such as cell phones, MP3 players and computers on a regular basis.

"These products have fairly short replacement cycles," he said. "That may make them more recession-resistant."

Scherf said it will be interesting to see how sales of digital TVs do this year. In the Parks Associates survey, consumers showed some signs of wavering on more expensive purchases.

At the same time, the transition to digital TV is spurring sales in advance of the Feb. 17 end of analog broadcasts. And there's a widely held belief that during tough times, people will spend money to upgrade home entertainment systems for an improved cocooning experience, Scherf said.

"Home theater fared well in our survey," Scherf said. "HDTV might be just fine."

But the cocoon effect is unlikely to carry over to upgrades to Blu-ray high-definition movie systems, he said.

"People have dozens if not hundreds of DVDs in their collections. That's a barrier to buying a technology that's going to require an upgrade to a library of movies that cost more."

At Moody's economy.com, economist Scott Hoyt was skeptical about the ability of electronic sales to hold up.

With weak consumer spending growth across the board, it's unlikely that electronics will prove recession-proof, Hoyt said.

But they do seem to be holding up better than during the last recession, he said: "In 2001, electronics sales went in the tank."

SIDEBAR

5 recession-resistant gadgets

Copley News Service

- LCD digital television

- Laptop computer

- Video game hardware

- GPS personal navigation device

- Cell phone

Source: Consumer Electronics Association

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